The Tragic
Commons is not a place any sensible person wants to be. The rules of political logic are unforgiving
here, and apply with a vengeance. Yet
poor John Boehner accidentally stumbled into our sorry jurisdiction, and now,
calamity has befallen him.
I’m sure
that what Mr. Boehner hoped, when he took the gavel from Nancy Pelosi three
House elections ago was that he would be leading his victorious Republican team
to victory after victory over the hapless administration of Barack Obama. How could he fail, particularly with some of
the largest Republican majorities the modern House of Representatives had ever
known?
But
instead, he’s spent most of his time running for his life. It must have seemed to him either that there
has been an ambitious challenger nipping at his heals every step of the way, or
else that few members of the Republican team seem to understand that team
solidarity is a precondition to victory.
Consequently,
victories have been few and far between since he got here.
It’s a
simple thing, really. When all members
of the party cooperate with each other, the fruits of that cooperation
translate into good feelings about the brand, in general, and higher vote
totals for its political candidates at all levels of government. Voters are happiest when stuff gets done and
they are angriest when it doesn’t.
But the
unforgiving logic of the Tragic Commons often makes cooperation unlikely. The members of the Republican team in the
House are often better off individually when they don’t cooperate.
Consider
the latest disaster in the making.
Congress must pass, at least, a continuing resolution—a budget would be
better--by September 30, or else the federal government will run out of
spending authority.
Without
spending authority, all but the most essential government services must suspend
their operations. Aside for the various
inconveniences citizens will have to endure, suspending and then restarting
operations costs a lot of money. According
to the Office of Management and Budget, the last time Congress failed to pass a
spending law on time, taxpayers incurred employee costs in excess of $2
billion, and the economy as a whole lost over $20 billion.
The
political costs of the last shutdown were also significant. The approval rating of the Republican party
fell to 32%, which was an all-time low for the party. It also drove approval ratings for Congress
to a chilly 12%.
Yet, the
prospects for passing a spending bill without political disruption are
weak. A sizable portion of the
Republican caucus refuses to support any budget resolution that doesn’t include
a ban on funding for Planned Parenthood.
Defunding Planned Parenthood, of course, will never pass the Senate, and
even if it did, President Obama would veto it.
Everyone
knows that there aren’t enough votes in Congress to override the president’s
veto. Everyone knows that eventually,
Congress will pass a budget resolution without the Planned Parenthood spending
ban. And everyone knows that Republicans
will be blamed for the shutdown and that Republican credibility as a governing
party will be severely damaged when the dust settles.
So why has life
been so difficult for Mr. Boehner? Why
do we need to endure a period of political kabuki before the government gets
back to the business of governing?
The answer
lies in the nature of the Tragic Commons.
Each of the Republican Representatives who think it would be better to
shut the government down than to provide even a nickel’s worth of funding for
Planned Parenthood may have calculated that the political price he or she will
have to pay for standing firm is lower than the cost he or she will have to pay
for caving. Each of these
Representatives fears, instead, that “compromising on a principle,” could draw a
primary challenge from someone in his or her districts who will use the “concession”
as evidence that the Representative in question is not sufficiently orthodox in
his or her conservatism.
But surely,
there must be some Republicans interested in the greater good who would not
like to see the government go out of business.
Well, there are, but there aren’t enough of them to pass a clean
spending bill without the Democrats.
And so Mr.
Boehner had to worry that if he tried an end run around the party’s
rejectionist wing, he would face an attempt to oust him from the Speakership.
It was
unlikely that the Democrats in Congress would allow Mr. Boehner to be ousted so
that somebody even more conservative could become Speaker. Yet, unlikely is not the same as impossible,
and so it may have cost Mr. Boehner something to get their support in the event
of a palace coup. He’d end up damaged,
no matter what.
John
Boehner has just learned that even if it is good to be the king, no one rules the Tragic Commons.
No comments:
Post a Comment