Jeb Bush's Kumbaya Moment

 

We need men and women of good will forging consensus, starting to solve problems, kind of building back the muscles of consensus, compromise and solution-finding to fix these things . . .[We need] a way to reweave the web of civility . . . That is going to be first, second, third, fourth priority because everything falls into place once you get that done.  

Jeb Bush, as reported in the NewYork Times, July 27, 2015

            Uh-huh.

            With this bromide, Bush attempts to echo every major presidential nominee since at least his father.  Remember the “kinder, gentler nation” and the “uniter, not a divider” presidents? What about the president who didn't see a “red America or a blue America but only the United States of America?”

            It's a noble sentiment.  But as anyone who has spent even a small amount of time in the Tragic Commons knows, it does not and cannot work in the political America in which we live.

            The political America of today is a highly segregated place.  American communities remain segregated not only by race, but as Bill Bishop has demonstrated in The Big Sort, by partisan orientation as well.  And that's a big problem in a system like ours that bases legislative representation on geography.

            In more innocent times, our population was more randomly distributed across our country.  There were still gerrymandered districts, but they were gerrymandered a lot less effective. You could have liberals and conservatives in more or less equal numbers living in the same states and even in the same congressional districts.  And you could also have liberal Republicans and conservative Democrats. Except for the South, which has had a tradition of one-party hegemony since the Civil War, elections could be competitive and close.

            Not anymore.

            Over the last 40 years, liberals have tended to clump together in urban and semi-urban areas, aligning with the Democratic Party.  During the same period, conservatives have tended to clump together in rural and semi-rural areas, aligning with the Republican Party.  Liberal Republicans and conservative Democrats are dying breeds.  And this has set up an intractable collective action problem of mammoth proportions well known here in the Tragic Commons.

            The basic dynamic of the Tragic Commons is that unless you can be assured that everyone will put the needs of the community first, it is always more rational to put your own interests ahead of those of the community.  Instead of obtaining the larger gains you could have gotten through communal cooperation, you end up leaving those gains on the table and settling for less.

            Suppose you're a Republican Member of Congress.   Your district is so overwhelmingly Republican that even if you will eventually face a Democrat in the next election, winning the Republican primary all but guarantees you reelection.  What you really worry about is somebody who claims you're a Republican In Name Only (RINO) and runs against you as a “true conservative” in the primary.

            Now suppose and you are facing a vote on raising the debt ceiling. You're not stupid.  You know that if Congress refuses to raise the debt ceiling, the country faces financial catastrophe.  Maybe the folks back home understand that, maybe they don't.  But the Democrats (who have to answer to similar constituents on the left) are demanding a higher ceiling than you think you can sell to your constituents.

            So how do you vote?

            Well, the country's best interests are served by avoiding a financial crisis, and so it makes sense for the parties to split the difference and pass a debt ceiling increase.  But you like your job very much, thank you, and a compromise just isn't in your interest, even if it is in the country's interest.  You don't want to be called a RINO by playing nicely with the Democrats. You'll improve your chances of returning to Washington after the next election if you hang tough and let somebody else vote for a compromise (nobody would really let the U.S. default on its obligations, would they?).  You can always blame your colleagues for whatever happens.

            And, that's the way American democracy is supposed to work.  Elected representatives are supposed to respond to the demands of their constituents.  They get rewarded by reelection when they do what their constituents want, and they get booted from office when they don't.  I suppose we can take comfort that our government isn't broken.  But, it's cold comfort all the same.

            I hate to be cynical, but there are two Americas, one red and one blue.  The people in the Red America perceive the world and their place in it in very different terms than do the people in the Blue America.  And the people in both Americas are feeling more and more threatened by the people who live in the other America.  What makes it worse is that very few of the people in either America know enough about American government, economics, geography, history, or science to make well-informed choices when they get to the ballot box.

            Instead of doing their homework, these uninformed people simply jump on the party bandwagon, ever confident that after vanquishing the other party in the next election, the people running the country will be their people.  They believe that the other side will be consigned to the dustbin of history after then next election moldering in quiet impotence.  Of course, it never works out that way, and so our system encourages the “vanquished” to fight on until the next election by using every means available.

            More power to you, Mr. Bush, and to anyone who wants to sing Kumbaya with you. But once the song is over, the reality of a politically segregated America will remain.   

            And, you'll still be here in the Tragic Commons.