Let Maryland Go First, Hon

            Aren’t you tired of the Iowa Caucuses and the New Hampshire primaries?  I know I am.  These two states with small largely white populations spread out among communities that people hear about once every four years take an inordinate share of the scarce political oxygen.  Their low population densities force politicians to spend an inordinate amount of time traipsing through them.  That extends the political season for at least three and maybe six months longer than it needs to be.

            On account of that, I’m making this modest proposal: Henceforth, let the presidential nominating season start in Maryland.

            Yes, I know I’m affected by a certain chauvinism that attaches to one, such as myself, who has spent his whole life living in what the local beer brewers  used to call the “Land of Pleasant Living.”  And I think it would also be fair to say that letting Maryland go first would free me to participate in the process in a way I can’t participate in it now, particularly since climates in those godforsaken states is far colder than I can easily tolerate.

            But even after we acknowledge my prejudices, you will still have to admit that my proposal makes a good deal of sense.

            The current era of Presidential voting focuses on base mobilization.  For optimizing general election turnout, this means that whomever a party nominates needs to be a person who is enthusiastically acceptable to the party’s base nationwide.  The momentum that winning the first primary gives a candidate should not go to someone who won’t appeal to the party’s median voter.

            If the GOP continues to specialize in the preferences of white voters, ethnic diversity doesn’t much matter.  Its candidates will continue to get primary electorates composed largely of white Republicans wherever it goes.  What the Republicans ought to be looking for is a state that has places populated by both Republicans who are most moved by economic and defense issues as well as Republicans who stress social issues.  The former tend to live in urban and suburban areas while the latter tend to live in rural areas.

            Democrats, though, find strength in diverse populations.  In the last few national elections, Democrats lost the white vote but prevailed among ethnic voters by big margins. 

            From a demographic standpoint, Maryland fits the bill for both parties.  In fact, the state is often called “America inMiniature.” Table 1 shows that Maryland is far more diverse and  

Table 1

Characteristic	U.S.	Maryland	Iowa	New Hampshire
Population Size	N/A	5.9 Million	3.1 Million	1.3 Million
Percent White	73.81	59.06	91.39	93.83
Percent Black	12.6	29.5	3.11	1.23
Percent Hispanic	16.9	8.76	5.3	3.05
Percent Asian	5	5.86	1.94	2.31
Primary Type	N/A	Closed	Semi-closed	Semi-closed

Source:  American Community Survey Data reported by www.USA.com

representative of the United States as a whole than either Iowa or New Hampshire.  The latter two states have pitifully small black, Hispanic and Asian populations, groups Democrats will need in the general election, both now and in the years to come.

            But Maryland also has a good mix of pro-business Republicans who live in suburban Baltimore and Anne Arundel counties and rural Republicans who live in Western Maryland, Southern Maryland and east and south of Baltimore County.

            A second advantage is Maryland’s size.  It has about the same land area as New Hampshire and it is about 6 times smaller than Iowa.  That means a politician can start the day at Deep Creek Lake in Western Maryland, drive to Rockville in Montgomery County for lunch, drive again to Baltimore for an early dinner and then go ‘downy ocean’ for an evening fundraiser all in the same day, traffic permitting.

            Of course, all that driving isn’t really necessary.  Maryland’s population density is about 10 times greater than Iowa’s and more than 3 times greater than New Hampshire’s. That’s because its population is clustered largely within Central Maryland.  That greater density makes it much easier for politicians to get in front of the voters. That should translate to a much shorter primary season.

            New Hampshire and Iowa like to tout the experience of their voters in sizing up presidential candidates.

            Please. 

            They have nothing on Maryland voters who are much better educated, and, frankly have much more skin in the game.  A large percentage of Maryland’s population works either for the federal government or for NGOs and contractors that interact with the federal government on a daily basis. Just let any one of the current presidential candidates show up at a Montgomery County town hall meeting with the bucket of horse manure he or she is trying to pass off in Iowa and New Hampshire as a policy portfolio and see what happens. 

            It’s true that Maryland is a deep blue state.  But, as a matter of fairness that’s another good reason to let Maryland go first.  Iowa and New Hampshire tend to be “battleground states,” and so they’re likely to get a healthy amount of attention during the general election campaign.  On the other hand, everyone expects Maryland to vote for the Democratic presidential candidate, so neither party is going to spend much time here after the nominating conventions. Letting Maryland go first would give its citizens a more meaningful role to play during the quadrennial presidential drama.

            Finally, while Iowa allows voters to change their party affiliations on the day of the caucus and both states allow independent voters to participate as either Democrats or a Republicans, that’s not allowed in Maryland.   Maryland’s rules make it hard for people who aren’t party identifiers to skew primary election results by crossing over to the other party in the hope of electing a weaker general election candidate.

            So what is everyone waiting for?  There are cases of Natty Bo chilling in the fridge and crabs steaming in the pot  It’s time to start the campaign season in the original land of the free and the home of the brave.